Energy analyst warns oil market overreacted to US-Iran ceasefire, fuel shortage still looming

US-Iran ceasefire announcement sent oil futures down 15 percent and stock markets up on April 8, 2026, with traders betting the Strait of Hormuz would reopen and supply constraints ease. Brent crude and WTI crude both fell below $100 per barrel in immediate market reaction, while the ASX climbed 2.6 percent. Energy research head Saul Kavonic warns the market optimism may be premature and fuel shortages could still occur despite the ceasefire terms. The analyst's concern centers on whether the ceasefire will actually resolve the underlying supply disruption or if geopolitical risk remains embedded in oil pricing.