Oil prices surge as Trump-Iran ceasefire weakens; recession risk looms

Crude oil prices rose sharply on Thursday as a ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump and Iran deteriorates, signaling renewed regional instability. The fragile truce has shown cracks, undermining hopes for sustained de-escalation in the Middle East and stability in global energy markets. Economists warn that oil supply shortages—not merely price hikes—pose a significant threat to global economic growth and could trigger recession conditions worldwide. INSEAD economics professor Ilian Mihov notes the distinction between price volatility and supply disruption, with the latter having more severe consequences for international economic activity.