Prediction market bets on Iran conflict raise questions about geopolitical gambling platforms

Prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi are drawing millions in bets on potential conflict with Iran, according to DW News reporting. The platforms operate in legal gray zones or face outright bans in some jurisdictions while functioning as unofficial geopolitical intelligence sources. DW's interview with Jonathan Cohen, Director of Gambling Policy for the American Institute for Boys, examines whether these markets represent a novel form of market-based forecasting or constitute high-stakes gambling feeding off global instability. The story raises direct US regulatory questions, as these platforms operate within and from US jurisdiction despite unclear legal status.